WHAT EXACTLY IS THE ISSUE?
Montana's Grain Handling Infrastructure Was Built for Wheat-Fallow Systems
More demand for handling services
Higher demand for off-farm storage
Issues with extended pulse crop storage
Grain elevators must manage increased volume
Market response: Reduce incentives for all deliveries
Potentially lower prices for both wheat and pulses
Question 2: What are the returns to pulse market expansion?
Empirical Re-phrasing: How can historical market information be used to determine likely future market outcomes and farm-level returns?
ANALYSIS SUMMARY AND ASSUMPTIONS
Simulate WW-F, WW-pea, and WW-lentil net returns for three Montana regions: Northeastern, North Central, and Central
Model annual 10% new acres entering into pulse production
Assume decreasing productivity returns to additional land
New land allocated to peas and lentils following historical proportions
Scenarios for average regional pulse yields and "potential" pulse yields (due to technological improvements resulting from MSU research)
Model constrained and unconstrained grain handling infrastructures