Mod Drop Rate Analysis

published by ItsAMaro

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Mod Drop Rate
The following analysis is based on the 100% mod drop rate during the weekend of the double drops: 5/27 and 5/29
Based on the data gathered by several users (Thanks to everyone that submitted), the data set had 1100+ input points, by color, by position and by primary stat. The information also included the amount of Speed or Offense secondaries.
Just about 35% of the mods that you'll get will have secondaries. Now it is time to see how many of these will have speed or offense.
With grey mods: Speed: 5.57% offense: 4.76% Without grey mods Speed: 15.94% Offense: 13.62%
What this basically means is that out of the 100 mods you farm, you'll only get about 5.7% mods that will have a Speed secondary stat (without taking into consideration the color of the mod. Percentages to get a *color* mod with speed secondaries (based on gathered data): Green: 1.71% Blue:    1.71% Purple: 1.17% Gold:    0.99%
After farming more than 350 mods myself, I noticed the large amount of left side mods (Square, Diamond and Circle) in comparison to the drop rates from the other side.
Arrow: 9.88%
Triangle: 5.9%
Cross: 12.37%
Square: 24.40%
Diamond: 24.63%
Circle: 22.81%
The above information is actually interesting. This means that by every 2.61 mods you get from the left side, you'll get 1 mod from the right side with a 72.3% chance of getting a left side mod and a 27.7% of getting a right side mod. What worries me about this is that the left side mods will always have the same primary stat, offense - defense - health/protection in each position respectively. Now imagine what you have to do to get a Speed arrow, even worse, a critical damage triangle. Let me tell you the odds with the following table
Ratio - 2.61:1
Oh! At least the drop rate isn't that bad regarding the MK Tier, 80% will be a MK V mod, so you'd have to be very unlucky not getting that Crit Damage triangle with speed secondary.
So basically, what I want to show here is the probability to get a Critical Damage Triangle being 0.91%. This means that only 1 out of every 100 mods you get will have this stat. Now, if you want it with a speed secondary, you'll have to be more lucky because the chance of getting this is a solid 0.05%, but hey, let's keep stacking our inventory with those juicy Defense Diamonds with a solid 24.63% drop rate. But, wait a second, how many of those will be MK V mods, because an MK III is not as good. Well, here is the tier distribution:
Disclaimer: As always, remember that there is probability involved, so RNG makes a big part of our mods. If you have tons of crit damage triangles with speed secondaries, well, you are really lucky lol. Created by: /u/maro2194 Special thanks to: Skelturix, Yodaman, Alphonsis, Capelio, Justin and Herbet.