THE

jaishankar

Model

a journey thru time

towards 

the india way

the old axioms

Business provided the bedrock for

independence, interdependence, 

multilateral rules and, institutions. 

The three axioms which ruled 

• Access to global markets

• Global supply chains

• Global skills mobility

From 1945 to Present

As the world re-balances,

are we going to define ourselves or

are we going to let others define us? 

@khatvaanga

divergence

Things are happening beyond the world defined by the old axioms which are creating new kind of international relations. 

The eroding causes 

• Disenchantment with globalization

• Anger at unfettered mercantilism 

• Inability to accept changes 
  

the future

divergence

timeline 

The reset

There is a re-balancing of the global economy and polity very clearly visible in the world polity today.  

The very structure of the international order is undergoing a profound transformation.

We have seen the return of old empires like Russia, Iran or Turkey.

What defines power and determines national standing is also no longer the same.

The world order is visibly changed but the new one is not yet in sight.

The global order will be impacted for at least a generation. 

There are many dimensions of the change which could each be a factor of disruption to the timeline. 



how it'll look

Things change, nothing is engraved in stone. This world will be different, power will be more dispersed, there will be more actors...

the six phases

The six phases of Indian Foreign Policy

1946-1962

Optimistic Non-Alignment 

As the cold war raged across the world. India was hoping to be the leader of NAM. 

1962 War with China brought this period to an end and also damaged India’s standing.

Realism and Recovery

Looked beyond non-alignment in the interest of national security. Limited cooperation with the US and USSR.

Sino-US rapprochement ended this phase. 

Greater Regional Assersention

High point was creation of Bangladesh. Low was IPKF misadventure in Sri Lanka. 

Dissolution of USSR brought an end to this phase. 

Uni-polar World

India shifted focus to safeguarding strategic autonomy. Economic crisis of 91 played its part in looking at

the world differently

The nuclear tests of 98 marked end of this phase. 

Balancing Power

India acquired the attributes of a balancing power. 2008 crisis resulted in G7 becoming G20 –

beginning of change of old guard.

A full majority govt brought end to coalition era ice-walking

Multi-polar Convergences

Confident China, inward looking EU, Brexit,

American Isolationism, weaker Multilateralism,

issue based convergences. 

An assertive, strong, secure, large economy backed India. 

1962-1971

1971-1991

1991-1998

2014 - 

1998-2014

the five focus areas

Lessons learnt over past seven decades. If the world is different, we need to think, talk and engage accordingly. Falling back on the past is unlikely to help with the future.

Greater Realism in Policy

It was at some cost that we discovered that outcomes can be decided as much on the field as at conferences. Reluctance to use power when needed

Greater Realism in Economic Sphere

Engage Multiple Players

Risk Taking

Read Global Tea Leaves Right

We had certain wins and certain failures over the years. Identifying the opportunities thrown up by the structure of world politics can also help mitigate risks.

It is evident that a low-risk foreign policy is only likely to produce limited rewards. This is not just arithmetic but calculus.

Extracting more from the international system depends on the bigger picture and a zero-sum game cannot be an assumption

If one considers all the major growth stories since 1945, a common feature was the extraordinary focus that they put on leveraging the global environment.

five interest areas

The five primary Indian interests that will guide us and drive us in this phase. There is interconnection between Diplomacy, Strategy and Economic Capabilities. 

                           SAGAR – Security and Growth for All in the Region.

• Safeguard our mainland and islands, defend our interests, ensure safe, secure and stable Indian Ocean and make available our capability to others.

• Deepening economic and security cooperation with our maritime neighbors and strengthening their capacities

• Collective action and cooperation to advance peace and security and respond to emergencies

• More integrated and cooperative future for the region that enhances sustainable development

Maritime Mandalas 

zones 

South Asia 

The Indian subcontinent is really among the least regionalized economies. We have to convince our neighbors that really the Indian economy is a lifting tide for all of them. The more connected South Asia is, the better it is for us. 

America & West

China

Africa

Indo-Pacific must be perceived as the further extrapolation of the Act East – Look East policy. It is also an affirmation that India would no longer be limited in the pursuit of its interest to its immediate neighborhood.  The ASEAN region will always remain central to our vision of Indo Pacific.

We don't have the history with the United States and with American leaders which many other countries do. There are structural convergences between us. Knowledge Economy, Diaspora and Trade are foundational elements.

Our relationship is so big that it is no longer a bilateral relationship. It has global dimensions. China and India have a common interest in making the world more inclusive for the different nations of the world. The search for us is for an equilibrium that would be satisfactory on both sides. 

India has always had trade and other relationship with Africa. It has never been a rent seeker. We would like to help Africa in setting up things and we'd like them to own and operate it once we have set it up. 

Indo-Pacific

Mandalas of Maritime Strategy

• Core Mandala - maritime infrastructure of the homeland, development of island assets, connectivity to immediate neighbors with littoral implications 

  and capabilities

• First Mandala - immediate island neighbors like Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. Part of it the revival of the Indian Ocean as a community that builds on its cultural and historical foundations

• Outermost Mandala - into the pacific engaging convergent interests to ensure core security while promoting stable periphery.

the india way

references

Indian foreign policy is being prepped to have a bigger footprint, to see it much more influential in determining the outcomes of global issues, to obviously see our interests and influence secured in our immediate periphery and beyond.

For that India will be - 

A Force for Global Good - 

• A country which brings its capacities for global good;

• Is a net-security provider,

• Is a contributor to connectivity,

• Is firm in dealing with challenges like terrorism,

• Has her values and practices,

• Addresses global issues like climate change
  
  

A Decider and Shaper -

A country that would be to be more of a decider or a shaper rather than an abstainer.

A Just and Fair Power -

A country that owes it to itself and to the world to be a just power, a fair power, to be a standard bearer for the South

A Knowledge Contributor -

A country that would shape international relations discourse with homegrown concepts, ideas, debates, traditional medicine.

What India will not be is mercantilist,

self-centred, cynical or unreliable.

• Asia Society Policy Institute, NY, 24 September 2019

• Council on Foreign Relations, 25 September 2019

• Valdai Discussion Club, Moscow, 27 August 2019

• Carnegie Endowment, DC, 30 September 2019

• Atlantic Council, DC, 1 October 2019

• Preparing for a new era, CSIS, DC, 01 October 2019

• WEF India Economic Summit, 04 October 2019

• Ramnath Goenka Lecture, 14 November 2019

• Raisiana Dialogue, New Delhi January 2020

@khatvaanga